LTG's reversal confirmed?

LTG started bounce after it hits RSI trend line and created higher lows on the next day. I guess this is it. Observed also that it closed today (Thursday 2-27-14) above 38.2% fibo line which is in sync with the red line at 17.65 which indicates a good sign since it has found support on that line. Current resistance is at 18.51, if it breaks, it may go up to 19.90.

Good luck.

A reversal for PX?

Today we saw that PX started to move after hitting the 100% fibo line. Last candlestick seen is a hammer which indicates a reversal for this stock. Observed that it's highest price hit also the current resistance at 8.58 which is the 78.6% of fibo line. Currently the RSI is still at oversold level which gives plenty of room for this stock to go up if an uptrend will be confirmed this Friday 02-28-2014.

Buy or sell recommendation? It's all up to you. :)

Inverted hammer on LTG?

LTG have been falling each day since it reached it's peak price at 19.90 or 0% fibo line. Based on the daily chart below, it has an inverted hammer candlestick last Friday. Can this be a sign of reversal for this stock? If you observe on the RSI (40.9) below, we got a buy signal already when it touches the lower trend line and bounced from it. (see green arrow line on RSI)

Based on the chart below, it got a strong bullish signal of this stock because the Cloud turned green and the price is still above it. What worries me is this stock may have a weak bearish signal coming Red line and Blue line which about to cross each other.

Did BEL found support at 5.25?

The 5.25 has been a strong support for BEL last week. On the daily chart below, you can see that most of the candlestick closed on this price. Also the price support was inline with the 50% Fibo line, the Chikou span and Senkou span B. 

As for the resistance, observe at the 61.8% Fibo line (5.39) and Tenkan-sen (5.40). But still we don't have any reversal sign for this stock so you might need a confirmation before entering. 

The rise of BLOOM?

Bloom closed today with 0.8% gain from yesterday. If you observe on the daily chart below, Bloom hit the short term resistance which at 8.53 (red line) but it was able to found support at the 100% fibo line (8.28). Take note that the previous candlestick is a doji from a downtrend which signifies a reversal. Hmmm? Does the candlestick today was the confirmation or we need another one? Observe that the RSI is still healthy at 38.

TEL may find support at 38.2 fibo line

TEL closed today with a bearish harami cross. This may be a sign of a reversal for this stock but a confirmation is need via gap down or lower closing price from the previous price. Theoretically this is a bearish reversal but 57% of the time, this is a bullish continuation. Hmmm? Anyway, if you observe on the chart below, you will see that there's a gap below that's need to be filled.

RSI is at 51.  Strong support is at 38.2% and 23.6% fibo line. You may want to add some shares on that level if you want.

Currently TEL is at a low price and you may want to accumulate shares since this stock is good for long term because it's regularly giving high dividends.

TECHNICALS TALK: PUREGOLD PRICE CLUB, INC. (PGOLD)

BROKER: First Metro Securities
OPINION ISSUED ON: 12 Feb 2014
SUPPORT 40.50 / 38.50
RESISTANCE 44.00

ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION
PGOLD broke a previous high, as it continues to recover from its lows last December. The stock is moving on a steady uptrend and is heading towards its previous highs.

ACTION: Buy/Continue holding PGOLD as long as the trend line support holds.Resistance is at PHP 44.00 while support levels are at PHP 40.50 and PHP 38.00.

-Contents presented in this page is courtesy by  PinoyInvestor-

STOCK IN FOCUS: SM PRIME HOLDINGS (SMPH)

BROKER: AB Capital Securities
RECOMMENDATION: Buy
TARGET PRICE: 20.60
TARGET PRICE ISSUED ON: 10 Jan 2014

SUMMARY OF BROKER’S OPINION

SMPH’s 9-month net income in 2013 of PHP 11.65 billion was just slightly higher than PHP 11.648 billion in 2012 due to reorganization costs of PHP 1.24 billion. Excluding these costs, SMPH would have posted an 11% growth year-on-year (yoy). In 2014, we expect SMPH’s Net Income to grow by 17% to PHP  4.19 billion.

SMPH’s Historical Performance and Forecasts

The merger of SMPH’s real estate business with 5 segments (malls; residential; commercial; hotels; and conventions and leisure) expected to be completed in early 2014 will result to SMPH becoming a leading integrated real estate company in the Philippines and among the biggest in Asia, well positioned to pursue

next phase of growth.

For its local expansion, SMPH plans to build 2 new malls this year and expand 2 other existing malls to end the year with 50 malls with a total Gross Flooe Area (GFA) of 6.6 million sqm. It also has 14 ongoing condominium projects in Metro Manila and 1 in Tagaytay. In Dec 2013, SMPH purchased 90% of CPI Asia Ten B.V which owns 5 office buildings in BGC, adding 147,000-148,000 sqm. Gross Leasable Area (GLA) to SMPH’s office leasing portfolio as of end-2013. 

Internationally, the merger will strategically position SMPH to bring its residential business and build Lifestyle Cities in China. In 2014, it will launch a new mall in Zibo within the Shandong province with a GFA of 154,000 sqm. Also under construction, expected to be completed in 2015, is a shopping center in Tianjin City with a GFA of 540,000 sqm. SMPH will have a GFA of 1.5 million sqm. in China by 2015. 

RECOMMENDATION: SMPH currently trades at 19x 2014P/E, with a 38.8% upside to our 12-month Target Price of PHP 20.60 per share. With SMPH poised to become one of the biggest real estate companies in Asia, we rate SMPH a BUY.




-Contents presented in this page is courtesy by  PinoyInvestor-

PSEi : THIS WEEK’S MARKET OUTLOOK

BROKER: AB Capital Securities

OPINION ISSUED ON: 14 Feb 2014

SUPPORT: 6,050

RESISTANCE: 6,185

ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION

The PSEi is now trading at 16.45x 2014 P/E vs 13.31x peer median. We find premium valuations susceptible to externally driven selloffs and slower earnings growth.

We see full-year EPS growth at 7% in 2014 vs. 9% in 2013. We expect gains to be selective among equities given the slower EPS growth.

We think that consumer, gaming, and property stocks will continue to post robust headline profit growth. From a technical perspective, we think that the PSEi will have a short-term pullback. But this will be shallow as we expect the price to be supported by the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages.

ACTION: We expect the market to trade sideways this week given that near-term catalysts will depend on global market sentiment. We would wait for pullbacks to attractive support levels before positioning on our preferred sectors for a better risk/reward tradeoff. Support is at 6,050 while resistance is at 6,185.

BROKER: F. Yap Securities / 2TradeAsia

OPINION ISSUED ON: 14 Feb 2014

SUPPORT: 6,100 / 6,050

RESISTANCE: 6,200 / 6,250

ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION

Sessions could range-trade within 6,000-6,200 or trounce beyond the resistance to 6,400, bulk of which will depend on investors’optimism on economic growth & corporate earnings. Preference might stay specific to sectors with solid fundamentals. So far, consumer, services, gaming & infrastructu rerelated entities are getting attention due to growth prospects. The only uncertainty will be supply pressure that might be unleashed once upper trading angles are breached. Immediate support is 6,100 & 6,050, resistance at 6,200-6,250.

-Contents presented in this page is courtesy by  PinoyInvestor-

URC closed just right in the 100% Fibo line

URC has been very strong last week which creates higher low each day. I think this is due to its upcoming dividend and investors are positioning for that. If you observe on the daily chart, URC closed exactly the same price as the 100% fibo line which is 125.30. Does it mean that this stock will reverse next week? I guess not because there's not much activity on this line and can be easily broken. But if a reversal will happen, 119.35 will be the strongest support which is the 50% of the fibo level.

Take note that RSI is 61 and still still healthy for overbought. 

Daily chart

Did JFC found support at Tenkan-sen line?

JFC closed last Friday (02-14-2014) and found support at 152.9 of Tenkan-sen line. For me, this is just a short term support and may not hold strong enough. Now let's say that this supports holds next week, observe in the chart below that we are facing a strong resistance at 127.2% Fibo level at 155.50 because not a single candlestick was able to pass this level.

If it happens that this stock breaks the 127.2% level, next stop is at 100% fibo level in which I can say that the resistance is not that strong. I guess it can proceed up to 164.79 where the 78.6% fibo level resides.

But if the support won't hold, we may see JFC at 161.80% fibo level (148.90).

Take note that all ichimoko indicators are still in bearish mood but the good thing is there's still a gap (see white circle) that needs to be filled.

Daily chart

Cosco: bullish one white soldier

Cosco showed some bullishness last week which closed last Friday (02-14-2014) at 8.25 from its lowest price at 7.47. If you observe on the weekly chart, the last candlestick is called One White Soldier. This candlestick is a bullish reversal pattern in which appears after a clear downtrend.

Will next week is the time for this stock to rise up to 100% fibo level?

We need a confirmation for that.

Note that all ichimoku indicators are still in bearish mood.

Weekly chart

FGEN hit the 100% Fibo level

Today (02/11/2014) FGEN hit the 100% Fibo level at 16.72 which acts as a resistance for this stock. Last last candlestick shows a Shooting Star which is a bearish candlestick. Also, RSI is at overbought level. Does it mean that FGEN will reverse tommorrow? We need a confirmation for that.

TA found support at 23.6 Fibonacci Retracement

This stock found support at 23.6% Fibonacci level which is also where the SenkouSpan B resides. This can be a strong support because we got the Fibo and Kumo acts as a support. If you observe, the Kijun-sen is pointing up which can be a good sign. Tenkan-sen on the other hand is at 1.83 which can be our secondary support if the price breaks the Kumo. But if this stock continue to go up this week, we can possibly hit 2.04. RSI is still healthy at 60 so it still has some room to go up.

URC piercing the Kumo

Last Friday, URC pierced the Kumo with +2.4% from the previous day. If you observe on the daily chart below, URC create higher lows which we can say that this stock is now an uptrend. This stock closed last Friday at 117.8 which failed to break the resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Now, if this stock happen to pass this level, next stop is at 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels which are strong resistances because the Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B are aligned with our Fibonacci.

However...RSI is still far from overbought and the dividend has already been announced. This may be the catalyst for this stock to pass those resistances mentioned above.

Good luck!

BEL broke 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level

So far BEL has bounced at 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level we have drawn last time. Today it broke the resistance at 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. Will itcontinue to go up and hit the 5.52? We still have the threat from Kijun Sen line which is still moving horizontally.

Although it has a bullish bias as of this time, it is very important that the newly found support will hold or else the break is a failed one.

Caveat!

Bulls on AP may bring the price back to its recent high

From the low of 31.75 to the high of 37.10, AP has retraced and bounced at 50%Fibonacci Retracement level. The candlestick formation yesterday provided us with the information that the bulls are in control. Today’s price movement has been a confirmation to that. Current resistance is at 35.84 while newly found support is at 35.06 If the resistance will be broken then we might see AP to hit 37.10 again and beyond.

Ichimoku system is telling us that AP is still in an upward trend with all elements in green light. RSI or Relative Strength Index is telling us that the stock is way below overbought level so this is also a good sign.

Caveat!

PSEi : Wave 4 is about to end?

We are still in Wave 4 so it's natural what we are experiencing some massive sell offs. If you observe the chart below, what's happening now is inline with our chart. This means we are going to test our support at 5709 but if that support won't hold we can welcome the 5227 as our last support. That is the time that we will have the so called Wave 5.

Remember...

Cash is King!




-chart image is courtesy by Kuzuri-

MA is climbing up the ladder with 61.8% retrace on each step

Looks like MA is going down to its support slope where the Kijun Sen line is also waiting at 0.017 This stock has been following a ladder with 61.8%Fibonacci Retracement on every dip. So from the higher low of 0.0140 to the higher high of 0.022, our projected retrace will be at 0.017 per shareunless the Senkou Span B will support the price not to go down any further and prematurely bounce but I think, for MA to have a healthy rally, it should follow the previous retrace of 61.8%

Caveat!

NIHAO keeps on falling. Looking for support

NI may seek support at 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level where theKijun Sen line is also moving horizontally. This is around 2.05 This is if we will not see any reversal pattern from our candlestick. So far what we see on its daily chart are red candlestick after another and no sign of reversal yet. Although the stock is not anymore overbought as reflected on its RSI orRelative Strength Index, it is still pointing down. I think it would be good if we will wait near the support and then see if there will be a good candlestickpattern that will appear.

Caveat!

PSEi - This Week Market Outlook

Opinion Issued on Jan. 30, 2014

Support: 6000/5950

Resistance: 6200

Broker: First Metro Securities

ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION

4Q 2013 GDP came in better-than-expected at 6.5% (3Q13: 6.9%, FY13: 7.2%). 2013’s strong growth numbers have already been priced in. Expectations of (slightly) slower growth numbers this year have negatively impacted share prices YTD. For the next week, local equities may continue to trade with a downward bias on the back of the slowing growth outlook for the ASEAN region. The Monetary Board is also scheduled to meet on 6 Feb; consensus expects no change in policy rates. 

ACTION: The market continues to trade within a short term upward channel range. However, the intermediate picture still shows weakness as the pullback from 6,200 may have been a potential lower-high. 

Trade the short term range if support from 5,950 to 6,000 continues to hold. Keep stops on a break below 5,950, as a break below this level may lead to further downward pressure.

Support: 6000

Resistance: NA

Broker: AB Capital Securities

ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION

The weakness of emerging market currencies has raised concerns that we are seeing a repeat of the crisis in 1997. However, we point out that there have been several changes that make this situation different from that time. First, the Philippine peso now adopts a floating exchange rate policy compared to a managed float policy in 1997. Capital flight will no longer be rapid since the market mechanism easily adjusts the exchange rate to its true value. 

Second, international reserves are at $83 billion in 2013 from just $15 billion in 2000, which reinforces the confidence in the Philippine Peso. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas can also use the reserves to maintain the currency at favorable levels.  

Also, the PSEi is now trading at 15.85x 2014 P/E vs peer median of 13.05x. We expect valuation multiples to remain elevated due to robust domestic liquidity and high GDP growth rates. However, slower earnings growth will keep re-rating limited. 

ACTION: From a technical perspective, we view the PSEi's close above 6,000 as a positive indication of a strong support level. This is necessary to keep the ascending triangle formation valid. We think the formation has a short term target of 6,300. 

We view this pullback as an opportunity to buy individual issues with strong EPS growth and valuation upsides. We expect the market to display gains next week driven by positive consensus revisions to 2014 GDP estimate after the strong full year GDP of  2013.


-The contents posted in this page is courtesy by PinoyInvestor-

CPG the undecided

CPG ended last week with 2 consecutive days of doji candlestick. This represents indecision in the market. Now, if we look in the daily chart, the current price is near support which is 1.28 and RSI is near oversold level. Its been a whole week that this stock is closed with red candlestick. Will this week is a start of a reversal? Hmmm... Hopefully.

If reversal will happen this week, we must take note that Fibonacci 61.8% has been strong a strong resistance as this was tested may times based on our daily chart. You may want to take profits at that level.

But if 78.6% Fibonacci level won't hold, set your cut loss plan since this may go down to 1.08 price.

Good luck.

P.S.: Sorry for my bad english :P

SMPH may hit 16.86

SMPH rallied last Thursday and closed with +2.2% from the previous day. From our daily chart below, there is a still room for this stock to rise since the RSI is still at 60. This stock found a new support at 15.40 from its closing last Thursday at 15.52. We may experience some 'headwinds' between the Fibonacci  levels of  38.2% to 23.6%.  That would be an opportunity to buy more shares during dips as we approach the 50% Fibonacci levels. There is a bigger chance that we hit this as our Target Price because if you observe both weekly (see Kijun-sen line) and daily (see 50% fibo) chart below, both of them synchronize in the price 16.86.

Daily Chart:

Weekly Chart

Good luck!








P.S.: Sorry for my bad english hehe :P