PSE Ticker

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Market Talk (AT, EMP, AGI, PGOLD, TA, AP, TEL, BPI)

Mining: AT’s tough 1H15 priced in; U/G to HOLD. 1Q15 net loss of PHP637m continued from 4Q14 as metal prices declined and mill concerns remained. Rising copper prices & completion of mill works in June will moderate 2Q15F loss; expect 2H bottom line in the black. Decline in share price has brought it close to our TP, upgrade to HOLD.

Consumer: EMP 1Q15 profits down 18%. Emperador Inc (EMP – BUY) disclosed yesterday its 1Q15 earnings amounted to PHP1.4b, implying an 18% drop YoY. This is disappointing as 1Q accounted for only 20.2% of our full-year forecast of PHP6.9b, slightly lower than consensus. In 2013- 2014, 1Q accounted for 24.7-27.9% of full-year earnings. Net sales grew 16% to PHP8.9b, behind management’s target of 35% growth for full-year 2015. We note EMP is coming from a high 1Q14 base as sales got a big boost from trade loading ahead of a price increase then. In 1Q14, sales grew 22%, EBIT went up 36% while net income grew 19%. But we also note 1Q15 would include contributions from newly acquired Whyte and Mackay. We will come out with a detailed note as soon as EMP releases their financial statements.

Conglomerates: AGI reports PHP3.4b net profit in 1Q15. Alliance Global Group Inc’s (AGI-Not Rated) reported PHP3.4b net profit to equity holders in 1Q15 was down 12% YoY due to lower net income contributions from Megaworld Corp (MEG-BUY), Emperador Inc. (EMP-BUY) and Golden Arches Development Corp (GADC). MEG reported net profit of PHP2.34b, 12% lower due to one-time gains of PHP600m booked in 1Q14. Meanwhile, EMP’s net income of PHP1.4b was 14% down as the company is coming off a high base in 1Q14 boosted by trade loading. GADC reported a 5% decline in net profits to PHP161m as higher revenues were offset by a faster increase in cost of inventory due to higher raw material prices and shift in product mix. On the other hand, Travellers International Hotel Group (RWM-BUY) reported 2% growth in net profits to PHP1.7b in 1Q15 due to lower operating costs and expenses.

Consumer: PGOLD-ALI JV to open up to 10 supermarkets in three years. The Philippine Daily Inquirer quotes a top official from Puregold Price Club Inc (PGOLD – BUY) as saying its 50-50 joint venture with Ayala Land Inc (ALI – BUY) intends to open 10 mall-based supermarkets within three years. The first one is expected to be launched in the next few months while a second store will be opened also within the year. The JV, which intends to put up supermarkets in ALI’s upcoming projects, has not yet finalized its brand name although it has been loosely dubbed by the media as Ayagold. Our forecasts do not yet include the JV’s impact to earnings and valuation.

Utilities: TA's Renewable received green light from ERC. Trans-Asia Oil and Energy Development Corp's (TA-BUY) wind-energy development unit, Trans-Asia Renewable Energy Corp. (TAREC), got the Final Certificate of Approval to Connect (FCAC) for its 54MW wind farm. This allows the project to connect to National Grid Corp of the Philippines (NGCP). The wind farm is expected to produce 120.79 GWH of electricity per year to support the yearly electricity demand of almost 48,000 households and contribute reduction of 65,000 tons of carbon dioxide a year.

Utilities: AP seeking banking loans of up to PHP44b for two new projects. Aboitiz Power (AP-HOLD) announced that Therma Visayas Inc. will borrow up to PHP34b for its 510MW base load plant in Cebu while Hedcor Sabanagan Inc will borrow up to PHP10b for its 68MW Manolo Fortich run-of-river hydropower plants in Bukidnon. The construction is now ongoing and the plant in Cebu is expected to operate in 2018 while the hydro plant is targeted for end-2017. AP has allocated PHP52b in capex this year to reach its goal of increasing total capacity by over 2,000MW in the next five years.

Telecoms: TEL's Smart unveils new plans for mobile-data use. Philippine Long Distance Co (TEL-HOLD) subsidiary Smart Communications released four new postpaid offers namely: the Roaming Plan for frequent travellers; the Consumable Plan with flexible elements and highest volume allocation for LTE; the Tri-Net Plan for those who need unlimited calls and SMS to Smart, Sun and Talk 'N Text subscribers; and the Multi-Plan that comes with multiple lines under a single account.

Banks: BPI declares PHP0.90 semi-annual cash dividend. Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI – HOLD) declared PHP0.90/sh cash dividend in 1H15. Record and payment dates have yet to be finalized. We expect another PHP0.90/sh cash dividend in 2H15, bringing total cash dividends for the year to PHP1.80/sh. Based on yesterday’s closing price, this translates to 1.8% dividend yield. Gaming: Tiger Resorts finds new partner for casino project., Universal Entertainment Corp, owned by Kazuo Okada, has sold its 40% stake in Eagle II Holdco Inc to All Seasons Hotels & Resorts Corp, 100% owned by Antonio Cojuangco. All Seasons is the new partner of Tiger Resorts Leisure and Entertainment Inc for its USD2b casino project and is the owner of the land in which the casino will be built. The sale could be the legal remedy to finally completing the project.


- Maybank ATR

No comments:

Post a Comment